Project Planning: Assumptions
versus Facts
© 2003 by Dr. Lewis Ireland, Clarksville,
TN
(editor's note: With this article, Lew demonstrates that
he's learning
to fit right in at his new home in Tennessee)
Introduction
The difference between an assumption and a fact is often subtle
and confusing. Some organizations, and individuals, view assumptions
and facts in the same light. This approach causes confusion in
managing both the assumptions and facts as well as communicating
accurately the situation during planning and execution of projects.
The American Heritage Dictionary defines both words in the context
of planning as:
•
Assumption – a statement accepted or supposed as true without
proof or demonstration.
•
Fact – something presented as objectively real or something
that has been objectively verified.
Planning a project using the wrong term can convey a different
meaning to fact or assumption with catastrophic results. Facts
do not change whereas assumptions are typically about a future
state that may or may not come true. Listing both facts and assumptions
as assumptions can also cause confusion because the project manager
does not know which assumptions to track to ensure they are converted
to facts.
Facts and assumptions in a poker game
 Herbert O. Yardley, a noted mathematician and code breaker from
the late 1920s and author of The Education of a Poker Player,
gives some insight as to facts and assumptions. His explanation
of poker is instructive and is used here to give examples of
facts and assumptions. Yardley used mathematics to explain
poker and the human element associated with playing a very
competitive game.
Some of Yardley’s advice included rules that guided a
person to play poker in realistic terms. Some rules are:
•
Don’t play any games that you don’t understand. Luck
does not favor the person with the least knowledge of the rules
or who doesn’t understand the game.
•
Use facts to determine your best odds of winning and discipline
yourself to stick with the facts.
•
Don’t assume that something good will happen if you ignore
the facts.
•
Don’t drink alcoholic beverages or engage in any practice
that reduces your mental ability.
•
Don’t talk to try to sway the opposition, but play your
cards.
(editor's note: the same rules apply very
well to projects!)
• Top •
If we take facts as “absolutes” and assumptions
as “maybes” in managing projects, we have a distinct
difference in information. Facts are what we know and assumptions
are what we hope will happen. Remember, assumptions are always
stated in a positive framework. Both facts and assumptions have
a positive or negative impact on the project.
Following Yardley’s instruction in his book, let’s
use poker as an example of facts and assumptions as work. First,
we need to review the rules of the game of seven card stud – a
card game where a player may draw as many as seven cards for
a hand, four face up and three face down.
Typically, there are from three to five players in the game.
The sequence for the game play is that all players ante (place
a nominal amount in the pot just for the privilege of seeing
the first three cards). Three cards are dealt to each player – two
down and then one face up. The highest face up card starts the
betting. Players may “call” (match the bet), “fold” (remove
self from the game), or “raise” (call the bet and
make another bet). This sequence continues until only one player
remains and is the winner of the pot or the last card is dealt
face down. This leaves the hands with seven cards, three down
and four up. The final betting takes the same sequence as prior
bets, but the high hand wins when all betting is concluded.
How does this help us understand facts and assumptions? Let’s
take a look at the game in progress.
1. Five players ante a dollar each and are dealt three cards,
the first two face down and the last face up. With fifteen cards
in front of players, we know, or the facts are, that we can see
seven cards (fact) and there are eight hidden, for which we must
make an assumption. Based on our three cards and the other four
hands we can bet, call, or fold. An opponent may give us some
indication of his/her cards by the betting – high bet,
medium bet, no bet, call, fold, raise.
2. Say that a medium bet of one dollar is made and all players
call. The pot is now at $10 with each player contributing a dollar
for the ante and a dollar for the first bet. Therefore, we have
five players who have neither shown a strong nor weak hand. We
make the assumption that our chance to win is still viable based
on seeing seven cards and the betting. We can make the assumption
that no player has a totally worthless hand or he/she would have
folded.
3. The fourth card is dealt face up to give each hand two up
and two down. We can now see 12 cards — all face up cards and
our two “hole” cards. Yardley tells us that if another
play has a higher card hand showing in his/her two cards, we
should fold. The fact is that we would be beat by the cards showing.
To make an assumption that we can out draw this other hand is
against the odds. Actually, we have the highest hand showing,
but the other players are not folding when we make a modest bet.
The facts are that we have the highest showing hand, but must
make the assumption that at least one other player has a higher
hand in his/her four cards.
• Top •
4. The betting is over and the fifth card is dealt. The facts
are that we can see 17 cards. Our hand is still high and starts
the betting. Two players fold and two opponents call the bet.
With 17 cards known and three players remaining, we make the
assumption that the two opponents have a better hand than our
three cards showing. Therefore, we need to have a better hand
with our two hole cards than just the values of the three face
up cards.
5. The sixth card is dealt face up to the three active players.
We now have two pair with one pair showing and a face up card
matching a hole card. The other two players each have a pair
showing. The facts are that either of the opponents could have
a third card matching the pair for three-of-a kind, which always
beats two pairs. Further, all players may draw the seventh card
down, which could improve any of the hands.
6. The seventh card is dealt face down. The only change to the
facts is that we now know the full extent of our hand. It has
changed in that we have three pair and can only use the highest
two pair. The opponents have given no indication that they have
better hands. It is a fact that we cannot bluff by making a high
bet. This group has always covered bets just to see what the
other person’s hand is. So, the betting starts with one
dollar and the two opponents call. As the first bettor, we show
all of our cards and declare two pair – aces and nines.
The second player shows two pair – kings and tens. The
third player shows three fours as the winning hand.
 The game of seven card stud shows that we have continually building
facts and changing assumptions. Each player sees the same number
of card values at each play as facts. Each player does not see
the same number of card values at each play and must make some
assumptions about the probable worth of each hand. Weighing the
facts and assumptions at each play gives us a relative worth
of our hand compared to the cards that we can see around the
table and the probable hole cards.
Projects are similar in that we need to assess our progress
to successful completion of the work and that each day changes
the relative worth of the end product. We deal with the facts
and analyze the assumptions to arrive at the best solution.
Our example of a card game gives us several lessons about facts
and assumptions.
•
Facts are what we can see and what we know about the future,
e.g., we have a number of cards available.
•
Facts only change with the situation, e.g., each new card dealt
to the players changed the actual situation and the parameters
of the game.
•
Facts are what is visible and real, but do not give a complete
picture
•
Assumptions are used to assess the unknown and to make judgments
for future actions.
•
Assumptions bridge knowledge gaps, but are not necessarily true
situations.
•
Assumptions are necessary to make decisions about the future.
• Top •
Conclusions
It is concluded that a more rigorous approach to developing facts
and assumptions in project planning can enhance the quality
of the plan and the probable success rate for projects. There
are some rules that help in developing and working with facts
and assumptions. Facts are real and have more weight in our
decision process that assumptions.
Developing guidelines for the use of facts and assumptions will
give a better solution that random application during critical
times. Facts are real and assumptions are what we think will
happen. Assumptions should never be made because we want them
to happen – this is an emotional approach rather than a
logical approach.
Know the rules for developing facts and assumptions and use
them rigorously. Be consistent in the use of the objective evidence
(facts) and the subjective evidence (assumptions).
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